What is happening in Venezuela is no longer purely an internal matter, but has transformed into a geopolitical issue that directly affects the global energy system, redraws the map of international alliances, and influences the balance of power between Washington, Beijing, and Tehran. For Gulf states, and Qatar specifically, the Venezuelan crisis represents a multi-dimensional strategic file requiring careful monitoring and cautious positioning.
Oil: The Common Denominator Between Caracas and the Gulf
Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves (303 billion barrels), surpassing even Saudi Arabia. However, mismanagement and American sanctions have led to a production collapse from 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1990s to less than 800,000 barrels currently. Any transformation in Venezuela’s political situation – especially if it includes normalization of relations with Washington or indirect American control over the oil sector – means:
First: The possibility of Venezuelan production gradually returning to the global market at a volume that could reach 1.5-2 million barrels per day within 3-5 years, increasing global supply and pressuring prices.
Second: A decline in traditional Gulf influence in certain markets, especially the United States and India, where Venezuelan heavy crude can compete with Gulf oil in some refineries.
Third: Complicating “OPEC+” strategies in managing supply and demand, especially if Venezuela returns to the organization as an active member (it is currently effectively suspended).
Gulf states, which depend on oil revenues to finance their budgets and ambitious development projects (Saudi Vision 2030, Qatar Vision 2030, etc.), view developments in Venezuela as a critical variable that could affect energy market stability and revenue sustainability.
Qatar: Mediation Diplomacy in a Complex File
Qatar officially expressed its “deep concern” about developments in Venezuela, calling for “restraint and respect for international law,” and confirming its “readiness to contribute to a peaceful solution through dialogue” between the concerned parties. This Qatari position is not surprising, but consistent with its role as an internationally accepted mediator from multiple parties.
Qatar has succeeded in recent years in establishing its image as the “Switzerland of the Middle East,” having mediated in:
- U.S.-Iranian negotiations on the nuclear file (2021-2023)
- Negotiations between the Taliban and the United States (2020)
- Prisoner exchange deals in Gaza (2023-2024)
- Sudan talks (2024 attempts)
Why Does Doha Care About Venezuela?
First: Maintaining global energy market stability, as Qatar is the world’s second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, and any disruption in energy markets affects its massive investments.
Second: Strengthening its diplomatic role as a neutral mediator capable of dialogue with Washington, Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran simultaneously, which elevates its regional and international standing.
Third: Long-term investment in relations with Latin America, a region of increasing importance as a market for Gulf energy and investments.
If Qatar succeeds in playing a role in de-escalating the American-Venezuelan crisis, or even in opening unofficial communication channels between parties, this will enhance its file as a “peacemaker” and grant it additional influence in complex international files.
“OPEC+” and the Venezuelan Dilemma
At its last meeting in December 2025, the “OPEC+” alliance decided to keep production levels unchanged, despite market fluctuations and increasing pressures. This decision reflects the organization’s concern about geopolitical variables, including the Venezuelan situation.
Venezuela has been a founding member of “OPEC” since 1960, but has become a “ghost” member in recent years – officially present but unable to fulfill its obligations or participate effectively in the organization’s decisions due to its production collapse.
The critical question for the Gulf: What if Venezuela returns to “OPEC” as an active member under new leadership loyal to Washington?
Iran in the Venezuelan Equation
The strategic relationship between Iran and Venezuela, within what is known as the “Axis of Unity” opposing American policy, adds an additional Gulf dimension to the crisis. Tehran invested heavily in Venezuela’s oil sector during the sanctions years, sending experts and technologies to help Caracas circumvent American sanctions.
Any shift in Venezuela in favor of Washington means:
- Iran’s loss of a strategic ally in the American “backyard”
- Loss of an important market for Iranian oil and petroleum products that were sold to Venezuela at reduced prices
- Exposure of a network of shell companies and financial channels that Tehran and Caracas used to circumvent sanctions
For the Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, any weakening of Iran in Venezuela means reducing its regional influence and ability to “export its crisis” to the region.
China: The Silent Player in the Background
Beijing has invested more than $60 billion in Venezuela over two decades, mostly in the form of “oil-for-loan agreements.” Any transformation in Venezuela threatens these massive investments, explaining China’s cautious position on the crisis.
Gulf states, which have deep economic and strategic relations with China (the largest importer of Gulf oil), are anxiously watching how Beijing will handle the Venezuelan file. Will it accept losing its investments? Or will it intervene indirectly to protect its interests?
Implications for Gulf Investments
Entry of major American oil companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips) into Venezuela with government support, if it happens, will create new competition for Gulf companies in:
- International markets: especially Asia where Gulf exports are concentrated
- Technologies and expertise: American companies have advanced technologies for extracting heavy oil, Venezuela’s specialty
- Strategic alliances: “New” Venezuela may seek to emulate the Gulf model in attracting investments and technology