Macron and Africa — French Repositioning
At the “Africa Forward” summit in Nairobi, Macron announced €23 billion ($27 billion) in investments, distributed between €14 billion from French public and private companies and €9 billion from African…
ISWAP Launches Coordinated Strikes Across Three Nigerian States in 48 Hours
The News On May 8, coordinated attacks struck Borno, Zamfara, and Plateau states simultaneously. In Borno, ISWAP fighters attacked a military Forward Operating Base in Magumeri, killing two soldiers. In…
Libya’s Zawiya Refinery Resumes Operations After Two-Day Armed Shutdown
The News Libya’s largest functioning oil refinery was closed and an emergency declared after clashes erupted near the facility in Zawiya on May 8. The refinery, with a capacity of…
Libya: Suspended Legitimacy
The News: Rome hosted the first “4+4” format meeting under UN mission auspices, with representatives from eastern and western Libya agreeing on a mechanism to reconstitute the High National Elections…
Nigeria & South Africa | Pressure, Drift, and the Battle for Influence
The News: Two separate crises converge in a single strategic frame. South Africa is experiencing a wave of anti-immigrant violence targeting African nationals, prompting Nigeria to recall its ambassador and…
Algeria and the Sahel — A Return to Influence or a Mediation Trap?
The security order Mali’s military council had built since 2020 collapsed within 72 hours. On April 25, a coalition of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg…
Mali: When Jihad Speaks the Language of Diplomacy
The News On April 25, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate, issued a lengthy “victory statement” describing the fighters of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) — a non-Islamist…
Mali and the Sahel: Multi-Dimensional Regional Threat
Since April 25, 2026, Mali has been experiencing the largest coordinated attack in its modern history since the 2012 rebellion, launched jointly by al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and…
Mali Situation Report
In the early hours of Saturday, April 25, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate, carried out a series of simultaneous attacks across Mali in coordination with the Tuareg-led…
Libya: Political Deadlock on the Edge of Ignition
The News Three contradictory developments paint Libya’s current picture: On the positive side, the House of Representatives approved a unified national budget for the first time in 13 years under…