What Happened:
Speaker Qalibaf tweeted yesterday: “What share of global oil, LNG, wheat, rice, and fertilizer passes through the Bab al-Mandab Strait?” This was a coded message to Washington: Iran holds the next card. European reports suggest Iran is pressuring the Houthis to prepare for a new campaign against Red Sea shipping, contingent on further U.S. escalation.
Why This Differs from 2023–2024: With Hormuz effectively closed, Saudi Arabia has pivoted to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea to export oil. Closing Bab al-Mandab would cut this final corridor, creating the “Double Strait Scenario”—the global markets’ ultimate nightmare. Djibouti, hosting U.S., French, Chinese, and Italian bases, would be at the heart of the clash. Ethiopia, which relies on Djibouti for 90% of its trade, would pay the highest price.
Assessment:
The Houthis are waiting for the signal, and Qalibaf has provided public cover. If Trump’s deadline ends in a strike, the closure of Bab al-Mandab could follow within hours, plunging the Horn of Africa into a severe energy and food crisis.