What Happened:
Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: “Remember when I gave Iran ten days to make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz—time is running out—48 hours before hell breaks loose on them.” Axios revealed that indirect negotiations are being led by Vice President J.D. Vance on the U.S. side and Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf on the Iranian side, mediated by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116346816254869135
The Full Diplomatic Picture:
Over ten days, the U.S. and Iran have held indirect talks via Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey with little progress. Iran has rejected any temporary ceasefire, demanding permanent guarantees against future attacks. Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are working on a compromise. Iran rejected a 15-point U.S. proposal, countering with five conditions including reparations and recognition of its sovereignty over Hormuz.
Assessment:
This news dictates everything this week. Two scenarios are equally likely Monday morning: a fragile deal under the pressure of the deadline to partially open Hormuz, or U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure causing a global economic shock that will not spare Africa.