The News: A draft UN Panel of Experts report revealed that the arms embargo on Libya has become “symbolic,” documenting 124 cargo flights by five UN member states delivering military equipment. Most critically, southern Libya is being used as a primary transit corridor for Colombian mercenaries and weapons flowing to the RSF in Sudan. Domestically, the discovery of mass graves is generating international pressure to hold elements of the former Stability Support Apparatus accountable — in a scene where legal and political tracks are deeply entangled.
Three Scenarios:
- Accountability: International organizations file formal complaints with the ICC, opening a file on accountability and tightening pressure on armed groups.
- Stalemate: The legal machinery remains a tool of political leverage rather than justice, and the flow of weapons and mercenaries continues uninterrupted.
- Expansion: Libya solidifies as a permanent logistics hub prolonging the Sudan war, with Kufra becoming a fixed supply node.