Yemen: The Houthis, From Blockade to Tolls

The News:

In a new escalation of their maritime campaign against Riyadh, the Houthis announced on July 28 that they had targeted the Saudi-flagged tanker NCC Gazal with ballistic missiles and said it was forced to turn back, while its captain reported hearing an explosion and confirmed the crew was safe. Regional sources told Reuters that the group is considering imposing transit fees on commercial ships in the southern Red Sea, with Chinese vessels exempted.

Background:

The attack is part of a rapid escalation that began on July 20, when the Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi ports. Since then, the group has claimed attacks on Saudi tankers and oil facilities, and the tanker Ensilia was hit by a projectile about 70 nautical miles southwest of Al-Shuqaiq. The Red Sea has thus returned as a main arena of regional confrontation amid the war with Iran.

Causes:

The Houthis seek to turn the Red Sea into a military and economic pressure tool against Riyadh by striking one of its most important energy export routes. More dangerous still, the group is moving from threatening navigation to trying to control it: considering transit fees means seeking to establish de facto sovereignty over the waterway. The group uses this pressure as a bargaining chip to extract its demands from Saudi Arabia: ending support for the internationally recognized government, recognizing the de facto authority in Sanaa, and funding salaries and reconstruction. Regionally, the Houthis are acting within the Iranian axis strategy of raising costs on Washington's allies.

Implications:

The escalation raises insurance and shipping costs and pushes carriers to avoid Bab el-Mandeb. The fee scheme gives the group a source of revenue and a new pressure tool, but it will face strong Gulf and European opposition. Even so, Western diplomats acknowledge that international naval forces are overstretched and unable to protect ships, and there is little political will to change that. On the energy front, targeting the alternative route through Yanbu compounds supply fragility while Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Why It Matters for the United States:

The development goes beyond a threat to shipping; it is a test of Washington's ability to defend freedom of navigation and prevent a non-state actor from imposing its rules on an international waterway. If the Houthis succeed in combining blockade, attacks, and tolls, they will set a precedent other groups may be tempted to repeat, weakening the credibility of U.S. deterrence. Washington may be forced to expand its naval presence at a time when it wants to focus resources on competing with China and containing Russia. The Houthi-Saudi confrontation has moved beyond sporadic attacks, leaving Riyadh with two hard choices: a neutralization deal that removes its facilities from the target list in exchange for limiting its support for U.S. operations, or moving closer to the U.S. campaign and opening a war on the Houthis. Both directly affect U.S. calculations. If a "blockade for tolls" equation takes hold, Washington and other major powers will have to rethink maritime deterrence and the protection of trade.