Region and Topics
The Houthis and the Cost of Iran’s War
The News The Houthi movement is experiencing its deepest financial crisis since seizing Sanaa in 2014 — and the timing could not be worse. Their primary strategic backer is fighting for survival, and the financial…
Strait Vulnerability — A Global Economic Trigger
News: What the Iran-US war has exposed is not merely the vulnerability of Hormuz — but the vulnerability of the entire global economic system. Seven major energy-producing states, representing a substantial share of the…
A New Trade Dispute Between Washington and Brussels
The News The Trump administration raised tariffs on European cars and trucks from 15% to 25%, in a move announced on May 1, 2026. The decision comes in response to what Washington describes as the European Union’s…
Libya: Suspended Legitimacy
The News: Rome hosted the first “4+4” format meeting under UN mission auspices, with representatives from eastern and western Libya agreeing on a mechanism to reconstitute the High National Elections Commission through a…
Nigeria & South Africa | Pressure, Drift, and the Battle for Influence
The News: Two separate crises converge in a single strategic frame. South Africa is experiencing a wave of anti-immigrant violence targeting African nationals, prompting Nigeria to recall its ambassador and Ghana to file…
Somalia: The Return of Piracy
The News: Since April 20, 2026, four vessels have been seized in Somali and Yemeni waters: the fishing vessel Al-Khairi 2, the tanker Honor 25 carrying approximately 18,000 barrels of oil, the fuel tanker Soward on April…
Algeria and the Sahel — A Return to Influence or a Mediation Trap?
The security order Mali’s military council had built since 2020 collapsed within 72 hours. On April 25, a coalition of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg Azawad Liberation…
UAE Withdrawal from Yemen and AQAP’s Return
News: In a serious security development, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has re-emerged publicly in Abyan governorate in southern Yemen — the first clear indication of its activity since Saudi-backed forces took…
Mali: When Jihad Speaks the Language of Diplomacy
The News On April 25, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate, issued a lengthy “victory statement” describing the fighters of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) — a non-Islamist Tuareg…
Mali and the Sahel: Multi-Dimensional Regional Threat
Since April 25, 2026, Mali has been experiencing the largest coordinated attack in its modern history since the 2012 rebellion, launched jointly by al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the…
UAE Withdraws from OPEC and OPEC+
The News: The United Arab Emirates announced through its state news agency WAM its formal withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, 2026. The announcement came on the same day OPEC was preparing to…
Mali Situation Report
In the early hours of Saturday, April 25, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate, carried out a series of simultaneous attacks across Mali in coordination with the Tuareg-led Azawad…