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Yemen: U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal Tests the Truce
The News The United States approved an arms deal of about $2 billion for Saudi Arabia. This comes as the kingdom appears close to renewed fighting with the Houthis. The Houthis fired missiles at the airport in Abha, in…
Saudi Arabia’s Growing Military Influence in Somalia
Somalia’s federal forces have suffered a series of losses to al-Shabaab across large parts of central Somalia. Reports accuse the government of outgoing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of lacking a reliable army…
Sudan: Can the U.S. Initiative Succeed, and Will the RSF Accept a Full Withdrawal?
Sudan’s army says it will only broadly accept a U.S. plan to end the three-year war if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fully withdraw from the cities they control. The U.S. plan calls for an immediate 90-day…
The U.S. Will End Its Support for the UN Support Office in Somalia by the End of 2026
The United States has set December 31, 2026, as the date it will stop all support for the UN Support Office in Somalia. Washington says that almost 20 years of investment did not lead to real security reform or political…
Ethiopia’s Sea Access Doctrine: Security or Escalation?
News: Ethiopia has signaled that its pursuit of Red Sea access is no longer just economic policy but a core security doctrine wrapped in deterrence, technology, and national pride. The military establishment has entered…
A New Coordinated Attack on Mali: What Options Does the Military Council Have to Avoid Collapse?
News: Armed groups launched simultaneous attacks on Saturday, July 4, 2026, targeting five military positions across Mali: Aguelhok, Anefis, and Gao in the north; Sevare in central Mali; and Kenieroba in the south, 74…
Morocco: Growing Questions Around a Potential Power Transition
News: A report published by Islam Times on July 1 documented Moroccan domestic reactions to a Reuters report examining succession arrangements and developments within circles surrounding the royal institution. The report…
Somalia — Turkey Enters the Air War Against Al-Shabaab
The Issue Turkish armed forces and the Somali National Army conducted joint airstrikes in the Jowdi area of Lower Shabelle region, targeting caves, weapons depots, and hideouts belonging to al-Shabaab. The official…
The GERD — Why Is Egypt Setting “Conditions and Constants” Before Returning to Negotiations?
The Issue Egyptian Minister of Water Resources Hani Sewilam confirmed that Cairo will not return to any new negotiating track with Ethiopia except on the basis of clear “conditions and constants,” following an official…
Libya — Is Washington Backing the Rise of Saddam Haftar?
The Issue The meeting between Saddam Haftar and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington triggered a wide debate over whether the United States is moving to unify Libyan institutions, or providing political cover for…
Egypt — Mounting Debate Over Constitutional Amendment:
The Issue Debate is intensifying in Egypt over the possibility of amending the constitution again, having moved from the media sphere into spaces closer to parliamentary and party circles. The central question is not…
Sudan: A Country with Two Currencies
The News New Sudanese banknotes have begun circulating in areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces, bearing the signature of Hussein Yahya Jangoul, “governor” of the parallel central bank in Nyala. On May 11, the…
Houthis Threaten to Target Any Israeli Presence in Somaliland
The leader of Ansar Allah (the Houthis), Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, has threatened to target any Israeli presence in the breakaway region of Somaliland by all available means, affirming that Yemen will not stand idly by in…
The “Gold Strife” Between Egypt and Sudan
The “gold strife” crisis between Egypt and Sudan revolves around the overlap of three highly sensitive files: unregulated artisanal gold mining, the security of the Egyptian-Sudanese border, and the Sudanese war that has…
Qatar: How Gulf–Iran Arrangements Are Redrawing the Rules of Undeclared Deterrence
Press reports indicated that Qatar offered Iran a “secret deal” before the outbreak of the Islamic Republic’s war with the United States and Israel, under which it would halt gas production in exchange for an Iranian…
The Houthi–Shabaab Entanglement and Red Sea Security
The growing coordination between al-Shabaab and the Houthis represents an additional dimension that troubles Washington, because it links two distinct yet strategically connected theaters: the Horn of Africa and the Red…
Al-Shabaab and the Fragility of the Somali State
Somalia’s current political crisis goes beyond the familiar bounds of constitutional deadlock and electoral paralysis, intersecting instead with a moment in which al-Shabaab’s influence is rising and the dispute between…
U.S. Sanctions on the Sudanese Army’s Procurement Network
On June 26, 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on eight individuals and entities tied to procurement and recruitment networks fueling the civil war between the…
Assab, Cairo, and Addis Ababa: The New Contest in the Horn
The hottest axis is the Egyptian–Eritrean rapprochement facing off against Ethiopia. On June 10, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aty met his Eritrean counterpart Osman Saleh in Cairo, with Egypt affirming that the…
Riyadh’s Syrian Bet: Security and Influence After the War
Overview: Saudi Arabia leads the field of countries pushing hardest to invest in Syria, in line with its Vision 2030 economic agenda and its drive to widen its regional footprint amid Iran’s receding influence, through…
Horn of Africa & the Red Sea Somaliland in Jerusalem
The News Israeli President Isaac Herzog received Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (“Cirro”) at the presidential residence in Jerusalem on Sunday, June 14, 2026 — the first state visit by a Somaliland…
The Trajectory of Sudan’s War After El Obeid
The News El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan State, is experiencing the most intense wave of aerial bombardment since the war began. At least 23 civilians were killed and 19 wounded in a series of drone strikes…
Saudi–Russian Cooperation: Economic Opportunities and Geopolitical Challenges
Overview: The chairman of the Saudi–Russian Business Council, Tariq al-Qahtani, announced on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that Riyadh and Moscow are seeking to deepen their industrial…