Libya: The Maritime Agreement with Turkey

The News

Greece, Egypt, Cyprus, Bahrain, the UAE, and the European Union rejected the Libyan House of Representatives' ratification of the 2019 maritime agreement with Turkey, saying it remains "null and void" under international law. The United States had criticized the ratification on October 25 as "unhelpful and provocative." Israel condemned the decision.

Background

Turkey signed the agreement in 2019 with the Government of National Accord in Tripoli, then Haftar's adversary; eastern Libya, Egypt, and Greece rejected it. In August 2020, Egypt and Greece signed a counter-delimitation agreement partially overlapping Turkish-Libyan claims. A gradual rapprochement between the eastern camp and Ankara followed: Erdogan received Aguila Saleh in 2022 and 2023, and the rapprochement accelerated in 2025. On October 7, 2026, the House removed Saleh, who had previously called the agreement "void," and then ratified it unanimously on October 20.

The ratification announces a strategic shift: eastern Libya, formerly Cairo's and Abu Dhabi's closest ally, is moving toward Ankara. Saleh's removal two weeks earlier points to internal arrangements that preceded the decision. The House sought to contain Egyptian anger by stressing that the two countries' security is interlinked. The Emirati-Bahraini rejection, alongside the absence of Saudi Arabia and Qatar from the statement, reveals a Gulf split on the Turkish file.

Why It Matters to the United States

The agreement pits Washington's allies against each other: NATO member Turkey on one side, Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus on the other, and the administration has chosen to criticize Ankara publicly. The irony is that Turkey and Egypt stand in the same trench defending Saudi Arabia while confronting each other in the Eastern Mediterranean the same week. The dispute could also hinder gas projects involving U.S. companies.

 Implications and Scenarios

• Most likely: An Egyptian-Greek diplomatic and legal campaign without military escalation, with Cairo careful to preserve its relationship with Haftar.
• Possible: Turkish drilling in disputed areas south of Crete, reigniting maritime tension with Greece.
• Less likely: Comprehensive U.S.-sponsored maritime negotiations among the four parties.