Israel: No Winner in the Elections

The News

With about 88.6% of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats, the opposition 48, and Arab parties 19, with Likud remaining the largest party at 26 seats. Another count gives Likud 27 seats and its coalition 54, Eisenkot's Yashar party 22, and the anti-Netanyahu bloc 49. Any government needs 61 of 120 seats. Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999. Official results are expected by November 4.

Background

These were the first general elections since the October 7, 2023 attack. Initial exit polls showed a slight opposition lead before the actual count returned Netanyahu to the top. The result reflects a divide between anger over the October 7 failure and the right-wing base's loyalty to Netanyahu in wartime. Trump said his endorsement turned an expected defeat into a possible victory or tie. Unless Eisenkot abandons campaign pledges such as an independent inquiry into the October 7 failure, Israel may head to new elections, with Netanyahu remaining in power in the interim. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 over a similar deadlock.

Why It Matters to the United States

Netanyahu remaining at the helm, even of a caretaker government, means continued close coordination with Trump on Iran, including any decision on strikes after November 3, without effective parliamentary oversight. With 19 seats, the Arab parties have become a swing bloc that complicates any alternative government. A repeat election would mean another year of Israeli political paralysis at a decisive regional moment.